Refined Analysis of Vegetation Phenology Changes and Driving Forces in High Latitude Altitude Regions of the Northern Hemisphere: Insights from High Temporal Resolution MODIS Products

Abstract

The vegetation patterns in high-latitude and high-altitude regions (HLAR) of the Northern Hemisphere are undergoing significant changes due to the combined effects of global warming and human activities, leading to increased uncertainties in vegetation phenological assessment. However, previous studies on vegetation phenological changes often relied on long-term time series of remote sensing products for evaluation and lacked comprehensive analysis of driving factors. In this study, we utilized high temporal resolution seamless MODIS products (MODIS-NDVISDC and MODIS-EVI2SDC) to assess the vegetation phenological changes in High-Latitude-Altitude Regions (HLAR) of the Northern Hemisphere. We quantified the differences in vegetation phenology among different land-use types and determined the main driving factors behind vegetation phenological changes. The results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) derived from MODIS-NDVISDC was 8.9 days longer than that derived from MODIS-EVI2SDC, with an earlier start of the growing season (SOS) by 1.5 days and a later end of the growing season (EOS) by 7.4 days. Among different vegetation types, deciduous needleleaf forests exhibited the fastest LOS extension (p < 0.01), while croplands showed the fastest LOS reduction (p < 0.05). Regarding land-use transitions, the conversion of built-up land to forest and grassland had the longest LOS. In expanding agricultural areas, the LOS of land converted from built-up land to cropland was significantly higher than that of other land conversions. We analyzed human activities and found that as the human footprint gradient increased, the LOS showed a decreasing trend. Among the climate-related factors, the dominant response of phenology to temperature was the strongest in the vegetation greening period. During the vegetation browning period, the temperature control was weakened, and the control of radiation and precipitation was enhanced, accounting for 20–30% of the area, respectively. Finally, we supplement and prove that the highest contributions to vegetation greening in the Northern Hemisphere occurred during the SOS period (May–June) and the EOS period (October). Our study provides a theoretical basis for vegetation phenological assessment under global change. It also offers new insights for land resource management and planning in high-latitude and high-altitude regions.