Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Modeling Based on Terrestrial Carbon Stocks in Xinjiang
Author:
Liu Xiaohuang12,
Xue Zijing23,
Liu Jiufen12,
Zhao Xiaofeng12,
Fu Yujia1,
Wang Ran12,
Luo Xinping12,
Xing Liyuan12,
Wang Chao2,
Zhao Honghui2
Affiliation:
1. Key Laboratory of Natural Resource Coupling Process and Effects, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100055, China
2. Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China
3. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Abstract
The increase in atmospheric CO2 leads to global warming and ecological environment deterioration. Carbon storage modeling and assessment can promote the sustainable development of the ecological environment. This paper took Xinjiang as the study area, analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in four periods from 1990 to 2020, explored the spatial relationship of carbon stocks using the InVEST model, and coupled the GMOP model with the PLUS model to carry out multiple scenarios for the future simulation of land use in the study area. We found (1) Over time, the types with an increasing area were mainly impervious and cropland, and the types with a decreasing area were grassland, snow/ice, and barren; spatially, the types were predominantly barren and grassland, with the conversion of grassland to cropland being more evident in the south of Northern Xinjiang and north of Southern Xinjiang. (2) The evolutionary pattern of terrestrial carbon stocks is increasing and then decreasing in time, and the carbon sink areas are concentrated in the Tarim River Basin and the vicinity of the Ili River; spatially, there are differences in the aggregation between the northern, southern, and eastern borders. By analyzing the transfer in and out of various categories in Xinjiang over the past 30 years, it was obtained that the transfer out of grassland reduced the carbon stock by 5757.84 × 104 t, and the transfer out of Barren increased the carbon stock by 8586.12 × 104 t. (3) The land use layout of the sustainable development scenario is optimal under the conditions of satisfying economic and ecological development. The reduction in terrestrial carbon stocks under the 2020–2030 sustainable development scenario is 209.79 × 104 t, which is smaller than the reduction of 830.79 × 104 t in 2010–2020. Land optimization resulted in a lower loss of carbon stocks and a more rational land-use layout. Future planning in Xinjiang should be based on sustainable development scenarios, integrating land resources, and achieving sustainable economic and ecological development.
Funder
Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Monitoring and Restoration of Desert-Oasis
National Nonprofit Institute Research Grant of IGGE
Ministry of Natural Resources Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Investigation, monitoring, and Protection Open Fund Project
Research Fund of Shanxi Key Laboratory of Geological Disaster Monitoring, Warning and Prevention, Coal Geological Geophysical Exploration Surveying and Mapping Institute of Shanxi Province
China Geological Survey Project
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