Trends, Cycles, and Spatial Distribution of the Precipitation, Potential Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index in Xinjiang, China

Abstract

Xinjiang is a typical continental arid climate zone and ecologically fragile zone. Drought has caused damage to the local social economy, agricultural production, and the ecological environment. However, the study of drought is more difficult due to the complex topography and the lack of monitoring information. In this paper, based on the meteorological data of 94 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020, we used the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to calculate the aridity index (AI); the Mann–Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and Kriging interpolation were used to identify the trend, period, and spatial distribution. The results showed that (1) the average change rate of the precipitation in Xinjiang was 8.58 mm/10a, the average change rate of the ET0 was −14.84 mm/10a, and the average change rate of the AI was −1.94/10a; (2) the periods of precipitation, ET0, and AI in Xinjiang were 39, 29, and 14 years, respectively, and the abrupt changes occurred in 1986, 1971, and 1987, respectively; (3) The Moran index of precipitation and temperature are 0.41 and 0.33, respectively, indicating that precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang are positively correlated in spatial distribution and have spatial clustering characteristics; and the z-values are both greater than 2.58 (p < 0.01), indicating that the spatial autocorrelation of precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang is significant. This study can provide a reference for the diagnosis of the meteorological drought mechanism and the coping with climate change in Xinjiang.