Chaos and Predictability in Ionospheric Time Series

Author:

Materassi Massimo1ORCID,Alberti Tommaso2ORCID,Migoya-Orué Yenca3ORCID,Radicella Sandro Maria4ORCID,Consolini Giuseppe5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi (CNR-ISC), Via Madonna del Piano 10, Sesto Fiorentino, 50019 Firenze, Italy

2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy

3. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Strada Costiera 11, 34151 Trieste, Italy

4. Boston College, USA (BC), Institute of Scientific Research, Chesnut Hill, MA 02467, USA

5. National Institute of Astrophysics (INAF), Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology (IAPS), Tor Vergata, Via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy

Abstract

Modelling the Earth’s ionosphere is a big challenge, due to the complexity of the system. Different first principle models have been developed over the last 50 years, based on ionospheric physics and chemistry, mostly controlled by Space Weather conditions. However, it is not understood in depth if the residual or mismodelled component of the ionosphere’s behaviour is predictable in principle as a simple dynamical system, or is conversely so chaotic to be practically stochastic. Working on an ionospheric quantity very popular in aeronomy, we here suggest data analysis techniques to deal with the question of how chaotic and how predictable the local ionosphere’s behaviour is. In particular, we calculate the correlation dimension D2 and the Kolmogorov entropy rate K2 for two one-year long time series of data of vertical total electron content (vTEC), collected on the top of the mid-latitude GNSS station of Matera (Italy), one for the year of Solar Maximum 2001 and one for the year of Solar Minimum 2008. The quantity D2 is a proxy of the degree of chaos and dynamical complexity. K2 measures the speed of destruction of the time-shifted self-mutual information of the signal, so that K2−1 is a sort of maximum time horizon for predictability. The analysis of the D2 and K2 for the vTEC time series allows to give a measure of chaos and predictability of the Earth’s ionosphere, expected to limit any claim of prediction capacity of any model. The results reported here are preliminary, and must be intended only to demonstrate how the application of the analysis of these quantities to the ionospheric variability is feasible, and with a reasonable output.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy

Reference24 articles.

Cited by 4 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3