Evaluating and Visualizing Drivers of Coastline Change: A Lake Ontario Case Study

Abstract

Environmental and climatic changes are disproportionately felt in coastal communities, where drivers of coastline change are complicated with continued development. This study analyzed the coastline change of Lake Ontario in the Town of Lincoln, Ontario, Canada, using a mixed-methods two-phased approach that is novel to the study area. The first phase of the methodology included a coastline change analysis using historical aerial photographs in a geographic information system to identify the most vulnerable sections of the coastline. To better understand the calculated changes, the second phase explored the roles of select climatic and non-climatic drivers of coastline change, such as historic storms and land use changes. The results indicated that four main areas of Lincoln’s coast were more vulnerable, with rates of erosion between −0.32 and −0.66 m/yr between 1934 and 2018. Sections of coastline that had less erosion included those that were more heavily vegetated, attempted a cooperative protection approach, or utilized revetment stones in areas without steep banks. This methodology can help municipalities understand coastline change in a more holistic way to increase their adaptive capacity and allows for the creation of useful visualizations that better communicate to residents and town staff the level of vulnerability of their coasts.