Prediction of Exhaust Emission Costs in Air and Road Transportation

Abstract

In this paper, the calculation of exhaust emission costs originating from aircraft and road vehicles in the base year 2017 and in the forecasting year 2032, in the Republic of Serbia, was carried out. The presented methodology includes a number of influential factors for air transport (airport capacity, number of operations, aircraft type, relevant engine, range) and for road transport (changing of traffic volumes, design and operating speeds, the quality of the pavement structure, type of terrain and category of road sections, dependence of exhaust emission from changes in vehicle speed). It was found that in the current operating conditions, the dominant costs in the total exhaust emission costs are the costs of nitrogen oxides (61%) in road transport, whilst carbon dioxide costs are dominant in air transport (52%). In the future, carbon dioxide costs will have a share of over 80% in the road transport sector and over 58% in the air transport sector in total exhaust emission costs. The average exhaust emission costs per one aircraft operation (international flights) will range from 141 to 145€. In road transport, the average exhaust emission costs at 100 km in 2032 will range from 1.8 to 2.2€.