The Energy Transition and Shifts in Fossil Fuel Use: The Study of International Energy Trade and Energy Security Dynamics

Abstract

The global energy mix is undergoing an accelerating transformation driven by new resources, novel technologies, and climate change-related commitments. Changes in the use and availability of energy resources have affected fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) trade patterns. Some economies enjoy increasing energy independence, whereas others become more dependent on imports to satisfy their energy needs. Using 2000–2018 United Nations Commodity trade and International Energy Agency energy- and monetary-flow data, we examine the evolution of the international network of energy flows to reveal new patterns and understand their energy security implications. Our work explores how the growth in the U.S. unconventional resources, European Union renewable energy, China’s natural gas consumption, and changes in other country energy flows affect economy positions and trade-network connectivity. Testing the small-world property helps us understand the diffusion of new technologies, including energy-demand electrification and renewable energy adoption. A modified energy-security index is introduced to highlight the interplay between fuel type and trade partner diversification and domestic supply and consumption balance. The results provide insights about the energy transition and its effect on the international network of energy flows and energy security.