Monitoring of Lake Ice Phenology Changes in Bosten Lake Based on Bayesian Change Detection Algorithm and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing (PMRS) Data

Abstract

Lake ice phenology (LIP), hiding information about lake energy and material exchange, serves as an important indicator of climate change. Utilizing an efficient technique to swiftly extract lake ice information is crucial in the field of lake ice research. The Bayesian ensemble change detection (BECD) algorithm stands out as a powerful tool, requiring no threshold compared to other algorithms and, instead, utilizing the probability of abrupt changes to detect positions. This method is predominantly employed by automatically extracting change points from time series data, showcasing its efficiency and accuracy, especially in revealing phenological and seasonal characteristics. This paper focuses on Bosten Lake (BL) and employs PMRS data in conjunction with the Bayesian change detection algorithm. It introduces an automated method for extracting LIP information based on the Bayesian change detection algorithm. In this study, the BECD algorithm was employed to extract lake ice phenology information from passive microwave remote sensing data on Bosten Lake. The reliability of the passive microwave remote sensing data was further investigated through cross-validation with MOD10A1 data. Additionally, the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was applied to analyze the trends in lake ice phenology changes in Bosten Lake. Spatial variations were examined using MOD09GQ data. The results indicate: (1) The Bayesian change detection algorithm (BCDA), in conjunction with PMRS data, offers a high level of accuracy and reliability in extracting the lake ice freezing and thawing processes. It accurately captures the phenological parameters of BL’s ice. (2) The average start date of lake ice freezing is in mid-December, lasting for about three months, and the start date of ice thawing is usually in mid-March. The freezing duration (FD) of lake ice is relatively short, shortening each year, while the thawing speed is faster. The stability of the lake ice complete ice cover duration is poor, averaging 84 days. (3) The dynamic evolution of BL ice is rapid and regionally distinct, with the lake center, southwest, and southeast regions being the earliest areas for ice formation and thawing, while the northwest coastal and Huang Shui Gou areas experience later ice formation. (4) Since 1978, BL’s ice has exhibited noticeable trends: the onset of freezing, the commencement of thawing, complete thawing, and full freezing have progressively advanced in regard to dates. The periods of full ice coverage, ice presence, thawing, and freezing have all shown a tendency toward shorter durations. This study introduces an innovative method for LIP extraction, opening up new prospects for the study of lake ecosystem and strategy formulation, which is worthy of further exploration and application in other lakes and regions.