Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry

Abstract

In the course of operation, the construction industry will repeat deviations and adjustments to it equilibrium state. Understanding the development fluctuations of the construction industry is critical to the formulation of a country’s sustainable development strategy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the development trend and fluctuation periodicity of the construction industry, particularly the deviation and characteristics of the development. In this paper, based on the H-P filtering method, the residual method for measurement of macro-economic cycle fluctuation is used to divide the periodic fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry into five rounds of economic cycles since the reform and opening up. The results are tested by a random test model and a self-correlation coefficient test model. The longitudinal time-series of data investigated in this research is the constant-price, gross output values of the construction industry in China in the period of 1980–2017 for a total of 38 years based on the national annual statistics. The results of the mathematical test show that the peak or valley of the economic cycle fluctuation of the construction industry in China reappears about every seven years or so. It shows that since the reform and opening up, the peak position of the cycle fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry began to decrease gradually, the valley level began to rise gradually, the volatility showed a downward trend, and the construction industry cycle fluctuation entered a steady and smooth process. The results of this study provide new comprehension of the development trend of construction industry and build the theoretical basis for governments and enterprises to judge the future development trends when formulating the relevant policies.