The Relative Effects of Climate Change and Phenological Change on Net Primary Productivity Vary with Grassland Types on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Quantifying the impact of climate change and vegetation phenology on ecosystem productivity in the alpine grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is essential for assessing carbon balance dynamics at regional and global scales. However, the relative contributions of climate change and phenological change to vegetation productivity across various grassland types remain indistinguishable. This study examined the effects of climate change and phenological change on net primary productivity (NPP) in the alpine meadow and alpine steppe ecosystems of the TP from 2001 to 2020. The results revealed that (1) NPP exhibited a positive correlation with vegetation phenology, particularly with an extended growing season length and an earlier start of the growing season. Among the phenological variables studied, changes in the start of the growing season had the strongest influence on NPP variations in both alpine meadows and alpine steppes. (2) NPP displayed a positive correlation with annual precipitation and annual temperature, with changes in annual precipitation playing a dominant role in shaping NPP variations in alpine steppes. (3) NPP showed a negative correlation with annual radiation, and the impact of radiation changes on NPP variations was comparable to that of precipitation or temperature in both alpine meadows and alpine steppes. (4) Climate change exerted a stronger impact on NPP than phenological change in alpine steppes, while NPP was jointly affected by climate change and phenological change in alpine meadows. Our findings indicated that the relative effects of climate change and phenological change on vegetation productivity vary across different grassland types on the TP.