Sustainable Development in Gansu Province: Theil Index and Cluster Analysis

Abstract

With the advancement of the rural revitalization strategy, counties have emerged as vital platforms for supporting rural revitalization, underscoring the increasing importance of sustainable development in their economies. It is imperative to evaluate the sustainable development potential of county economies and implement precise measures accordingly. This paper selects relevant economic development indicators from 2016 to 2020 for 76 counties in Gansu Province, constructs an evaluation system for assessing their sustainable development potential, and employs methods such as the Theil index, spatial autocorrelation, principal component analysis, and cluster grouping classification. The evaluation considers three aspects: the county economic development gap, the development potential score, and cluster analysis. The findings reveal that the economic development of Gansu Province’s counties exhibits spatial characteristics of multi-point flowering and scattered distribution, with relatively weak communication and development between surrounding counties. Over the five-year period, significant disparities in economic development among Gansu Province’s counties are evident. Liangzhou District ranks highest in county economic development, while other counties with robust economic development are primarily concentrated in the Lanzhou–Baiyin metropolitan area, the Tianshui metropolitan area, the west entrance of the Hexi Corridor economic belt, and the Qingyang–Pingliang group area. These counties exhibit a spatial pattern of agglomeration towards the central and eastern regions. Moreover, some counties in the southeastern region of Longdong demonstrate promising economic development potential, forming an initial scale of contiguous development. This indicates favorable prospects for sustainable development in the region’s county economy.