Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Secondary Decomposition and Conventional Neural Network–Transformer

Abstract

Because of the random volatility of traffic data, short-term traffic flow forecasting has always been a problem that needs to be further researched. We developed a short-term traffic flow forecasting approach by applying a secondary decomposition strategy and CNN–Transformer model. Firstly, traffic flow data are decomposed by using a Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm, and a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are obtained. Secondly, the IMF1 obtained from the CEEMDAN is further decomposed into some sub-series by using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) algorithm. Thirdly, the CNN–Transformer model is established for each IMF separately. The CNN model is employed to extract local spatial features, and then the Transformer model utilizes these features for global modeling and long-term relationship modeling. Finally, we obtain the final results by superimposing the forecasting results of each IMF component. The measured traffic flow dataset of urban expressways was used for experimental verification. The experimental results reveal the following: (1) The forecasting performance achieves remarkable improvement when considering secondary decomposition. Compared with the VMD-CNN–Transformer, the CEEMDAN-VMD-CNN–Transformer method declined by 25.84%, 23.15% and 22.38% in three-step-ahead forecasting in terms of MAPE. (2) It has been proven that our proposed CNN–Transformer model could achieve more outstanding forecasting performance. Compared with the CEEMDAN-VMD-CNN, the CEEMDAN-VMD-CNN–Transformer method declined by 13.58%, 11.88% and 11.10% in three-step-ahead forecasting in terms of MAPE.