Evaluation Cloud Model of Spontaneous Combustion Fire Risk in Coal Mines by Fusing Interval Gray Number and DEMATEL

Abstract

Coal still occupies a key position in China’s energy consumption structure, and ensuring safe production in coal mines is a key focus for ensuring energy security. Spontaneous combustion fires in coal mines are a serious threat to the sustainability of safe production in coal mines. In order to prevent coal mine fire risk scientifically and effectively and to assess the level of disaster risk effectively and rationally, a study was conducted on the risk of spontaneous combustion fires in underground coal mines. An evaluation cloud model of spontaneous combustion fire risk in coal mines integrating the interval gray number with the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) was established. Seventeen representative risk evaluation indicators were selected, and a coal mine spontaneous combustion fire risk evaluation index system was constructed based on four aspects: personnel, machinery, environment, and management. The interval gray number theory was introduced to improve the classical DEMATEL analysis method, which fully expresses the expert empirical knowledge and solves the problem of ambiguity and randomness in the semantic expression of expert evaluation. The relative importance of each indicator was determined by analyzing the influence relationships between risk evaluation indicators through the improved DEMATEL. A cloud model capable of transforming quantitative descriptions and qualitative concepts was used for comprehensive evaluation of risk, and based on the results of DEMATEL analysis, a comprehensive evaluation cloud model of coal mine spontaneous combustion fire risk was formed. Finally, the validity and practicality of the model were verified by using a mine in Shenmu City, Shaanxi Province, China as an example. This study provides a powerful tool to prevent spontaneous combustion fires in coal mines and makes a positive contribution to the sustainable development of coal mine safety management.