Study on Influencing Factors and Spatial Effects of Carbon Emissions Based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model: A Case Study of Hunan Province

Abstract

China has committed to peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and has set a goal of working towards carbon neutrality by 2060. Hunan province is a vital undertaking place for national industrial transfer. It is of great significance for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction to investigate the influencing factors and spatial effects of carbon emissions in Hunan province. Firstly, based on the energy consumption data of Hunan province from 2005 to 2017, this paper uses the method recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to measure the carbon emissions of Hunan province and its economic zones. Secondly, the five-factor Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is constructed to analyze the influence degree of population size, economic development, industrial structure, energy intensity, and energy structure on carbon emissions. Finally, the spatial differences of the influencing factors in the four economic zones of Hunan province are analyzed. The research shows that: (1) An overall carbon emission reduction has been achieved in Hunan province since 2011. (2) Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan Economic Zone is the key area to achieve carbon emission reduction, while there is still the phenomenon of emission increase in the other three economic zones. (3) For all economic zones, economic development contributes the most to the increase in carbon emissions, while energy intensity shows the strongest inhibitory effect. Other factors have various effects on the four economic zones.