Environmental Impact of ICT on Disaggregated Energy Consumption in China: A Threshold Regression Analysis

Abstract

Due to resource scarcity, high energy demand, and environmental degradation, China’s rapid economic growth over the past three decades has been accompanied by certain serious issues that require quick attention. The excessive use of fossil fuels worsens the ecosystem and raises the level of carbon in the atmosphere. However, the use of ICT has affected the behavior of energy use in various sectors differently. Although ICT-induced activities, on one hand, may affect the environment positively by reducing energy consumption, on the other hand, they may affect the environment adversely by causing an energy rebound effect. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the nonlinear impact of ICT on the environmental effects of energy consumption in the residential, transport, and industrial sectors in China. The study used threshold regression for empirical analysis by employing data for the period from 1990 to 2021. ICT is used as a threshold variable, while energy consumption in the residential, industrial, and transport sectors is used as a regime-dependent variable. Based on the findings, we deduce that the use of ICT asymmetrically affects sectoral energy consumption and the empirical result varies across sectors. Based on the results, we recommend that the possibility of rebound effects should be given more attention in the development of policies regarding the digitalization of the sectors.