Conceptual Framework for Evaluating E-Commerce Deliveries Using Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

To model the urban logistic environment, many variables need to be taken into account as this system is composed of different stakeholders with conflicting objectives and actions that influence the actions of others. Agent-based modeling (ABM) and simulations are useful tools for studying this environment with so many variables and uncertainties. Typically, urban logistic stakeholders are represented by agents who interact with each other and obey different rules. This study presents a conceptual framework for evaluating e-commerce urban freight using ABM and Design of Experiments (DoE). The simulations performed were designed to highlight the most important parameters that affect the response variable and should be taken into account in the experimentation process. The scenarios were studied to evaluate the use of Delivery Lockers (DLs) and failures in delivery attempts. The results of the DoE analysis allowed us to verify that the DL utilization rate, first attempt delivery failure rate, and truck stoppage time most impact costs and profits in the modeled system. The framework presented showed that the use of DoE in the simulation study reduced the number of simulated scenarios, which is a significant gain given the complexity of the model and the relatively large computational time required to execute a new scenario. Consequently, different studies may use the findings presented here to plan scenarios in their simulation projects.