Dynamic Evolution Modeling of a Lake-Terminating Glacier in the Western Himalayas Using a Two-Dimensional Higher-Order Flowline Model

Abstract

To better understand the future evolution of Jiemayangzong Glacier (JMYZG), the headstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, we simulated its future ice thickness evolution using a two-dimensional higher-order numerical flowline model. Due to the sparsity of in situ observational data, we used a combination of field observations and inversion models of velocity and ice thickness to initialize the model parameters. We validated the parametrizations of the calving scheme by comparing the modeled and observed glacier terminus retreats. To estimate the response of JMYZG to climate change, the ice flow model was forced with different climate scenarios. We found that the JMYZG will retreat under different climate scenarios. By 2100, the volume loss of JMYZG will be approximately 34%, 67% and 81% under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.