How Does a Port Build Influence? Diffusion Patterns in Global Oil Transportation

Abstract

Ports play a critical role in the global oil trade market, and those with significant influence have an implicit advantage in global oil transportation. In order to offer a thorough understanding of port influences, the research presented in this paper analyzes the evolution of the dominance mechanisms underlying port influence diffusion. Our study introduces a port influence diffusion model to outline global oil transport patterns. It examines the direct and indirect influence of ports using worldwide vessel trajectory data from 2009 to 2016. Port influences are modelled via diffusion patterns and the resulting ports influenced. The results of the case study applied to specific ports show different patterns and influence evolutions. Four main port influence trends are identified. The first one is that ports that have a strong direct influence over their neighboring ports materialize a directly influenced area. Second, geographical distance still plays an important role in the whole port influence patterns. Third, it clearly appears that, the higher the number of directly influenced ports, the higher the probability of having an influence pattern, as revealed by the diffusion process. The peculiarity of this approach is that, in contrast to previous studies, global maritime trade is analyzed in terms of direct and indirect influences and according to oil trade flows.