Transmission of COVID-19 in Cities with Weather Conditions of High Air Humidity: Lessons Learned from Turkish Black Sea Region to Face Next Pandemic Crisis

Abstract

The goal of this study is to analyze associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological indicators in cities of the Black Sea region of Turkey, located specifically in the dampest area, with excess rainfall and recurring fog. In particular, the working hypothesis is that the widespread transmission of new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (leading to the airborne disease COVID-19) in cities can be explained by specific weather conditions, namely high levels of air humidity. Statistical evidence here does not seem, in general, to support the hypothesis that the accelerated transmission of COVID-19 in the studied cities can be explained by high levels of humidity because different meteorological, environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors also plays a critical role in the disease transmission dynamics of the investigated region. The main implications of our findings here are that the demographic structure of the population, climate indicators, organization of the health system, and environmental factors (e.g., air pollution, etc.) should be considered through a systemic approach when designing effective national and regional pandemic plans directed to implement health policies for facing new variants of COVID-19 and/or new airborne diseases, in order to reduce their negative effects on health, social and economic systems.