Cyclicities in the Regime of Groundwater and of Meteorological Factors in the Basin of the Southern Bug River

Abstract

The data of observations since 1951 in the upper part of the Southern Bug River basin in the west of Ukraine are analyzed. The results indicate that the climate change occurring on Earth disrupts the regular cyclicity of groundwater flow indicators. The identified 7–8-year groundwater level and flow to the river cyclicity correlates well with the air temperature, precipitation and river runoff cyclicity. The noted groundwater cyclicity appears with some delay after the establishment of the 8-year air temperature cyclicity observed since 1969. The manifestation of a 7–8-year cycle depends on the groundwater table (GWT) depth. For shallow groundwater (1.0–2.5 m), such rhythms have been observed since 1975, and for deeper levels, since 1989, which is recognized as the year of the beginning of the climate changes. Moreover, 7–8-year rhythms in the fluctuation of groundwater parameters are characteristic of mainly high-water periods of their multiyear regime, and during the low-flow phase is significantly weakened. During 2011–2014, the groundwater levels abnormally decreased and the 8-year cycles were replaced with 5-year ones. The influence of air temperature on the groundwater regime exceeds the role of other factors. Wavelet analysis was used as the main method of periodicity observation. Gaussian and Morlet wavelets provide the visualization of pronounced periodicities of data. Using multiple correlation analysis, it was confirmed that temperature has become the dominant impact factor on the groundwater (GWT 1.5–4.0 m) regime in recent decades.