Wind Turbine Blade Icing Prediction Using Focal Loss Function and CNN-Attention-GRU Algorithm

Abstract

Blade icing seriously affects wind turbines’ aerodynamic performance and output power. Timely and accurately predicting blade icing status is crucial to improving the economy and safety of wind farms. However, existing blade icing prediction methods cannot effectively solve the problems of unbalanced icing/non-icing data and low prediction accuracy. In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a wind turbine blade icing prediction method based on the focal loss function and CNN-Attention-GRU. First, the recursive feature elimination method combined with the physical mechanism of icing is used to extract features highly correlated with blade icing, and a new feature subset is formed through a sliding window algorithm. Then, the focal loss function is utilized to assign more weight to the ice samples with a lower proportion, addressing the significant class imbalance between the ice and non-ice categories. Finally, based on the CNN-Attention-GRU algorithm, a blade icing prediction model is established using continuous 24-h historical data as the input and the icing status of the next 24 h as the output. The model is compared with advanced neural network models. The results show that the proposed method improves the prediction accuracy and F1 score by an average of 6.41% and 4.27%, respectively, demonstrating the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.