Modeling the Evolutionary Mechanism of China’s Domestic Air Transport Network

Abstract

With the rapid expansion of China’s domestic air transport network (CATN), it is fundamental to model which factors and mechanisms impact this development. This paper investigates how the combined endogenous and exogenous factors influencing the evolution of CATN based on longitudinal data by utilizing a more all-encompassing methodology of stochastic actor based-modeling (SABM). Endogenous variables include a density effect, a betweenness effect, a transitivity closure effect, and a ‘number of distances-two’ effect. Exogenous variables incorporate airport hierarchy, a distance effect, presence or absence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) and high-speed rail (HSR). The systematic classification of Chinese airports into more than the typical two or three tiers allows the impacts of the four endogenous covariates to be revealed. Overall, the CATN has tended to evolve into a more compacted and non-concentrated network structure through the creation of non-stop routes and closed triads. The integrated inclusion of low-cost carrier and high-speed rail effects highlights the importance of market presence to the initiation of new routes at initial stages, cultivating potential demand and increasing accessibility. In addition, the construction of HSR to one primary airport within a multi-airport system can raise “shadow effects” for other airports. Our findings provide policy suggestions for airport operators in terms of developing accurate positions in the hierarchy and strengthening transfer ability.