Spatial Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Rural “Production–Ecological–Living” Space: A Case Study for Beijing, China

Abstract

With the vigorous development of industrialization and urbanization, rural space faces many difficulties in achieving sustainable development, such as the spatial structure being unbalanced. To explore the sustainable development of rural space, this study evaluates the spatial evolution and multi-scenario simulation of rural space with reference to the three dominant functions of land use, namely “production–ecological–living” (PEL), based on the interpretation of land use remote sensing data in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The change characteristics and the formation mechanism of the territorial spatial pattern were quantitatively analyzed by gravity center transfer, territorial spatial transfer matrix, standard deviational ellipse, geo-detector, and artificial neural network CA simulation. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the rural production space in Beijing continued to decrease, the rural living space continued to increase and then gradually contracted, and the rural ecological space as a whole also showed a downward trend. (2) During the study period, the formation and evolution of the ecological spatial pattern of rural production and living in Beijing were affected by both regional physical geographical factors and human, social, and economic factors, with significant differences; the interaction between two driving factors is stronger than that within a single factor, and the main mode of action is double factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. (3) Compared with the other three scenarios, the performance of Beijing’s rural space in 2030 under the harmonious development scenario is more compact and stable, the rural production space is basically guaranteed, the intensity of rural living space is enhanced, and the overall situation of rural ecological space is stable. Our results show that in the future decision-making of rural land and space development around a metropolis, we should fully consider the evolution law of rural spatial pattern, as well as the driving force of natural geographical factors and economic activity factors and discuss the optimization and overall management of rural production and living ecological space through multi-scenario spatial simulation.