Creating a Risk Assessment Plan for Rainfall Impacts on Heritage Buildings Façades via Quantitative Methods

Abstract

The unstable climate causes many related risks, including heavy rainfall. In the past, Egypt experienced rainfall over time. Although Egypt is still classified as a low-precipitation country, it can experience extreme rainfall events, resulting in flash floods. Many fragile materials related to heritage building façades may be affected by the change in rainfall rates without any risk assessment plan. This research aims to confront the hazards of raindrop strikes, as the need for making a risk management plan has arisen in order to preserve heritage buildings from heavy rainfall. The research methodology uses the ABC risk assessment quantitative method in addition to experts’ multi-round assessments and tornado diagrams to analyze the magnitude of risks in order to create a risk assessment plan for a group of heritage buildings in Historic Cairo as a pilot study that can be generalized for similar cases. The final output is framed into a cause-and-effect model for rainfall risk problem solving, generated by rainfall risk causes and effects on the heritage building facades.