Scenarios for the Development of Polish Passenger Transport Services in Pandemic Conditions

Abstract

The article presents a prediction regarding the development of passenger transport services, considering random factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic situation, based on scenario methods. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic has significantly affected the way passenger transport services are provided, mainly due to sanitary restrictions imposed by epidemiological services. At the same time, the communication behaviour of travellers has also changed, which in turn has influenced the demand for these services. The following study investigates transport service future development issues from multiple perspectives, including demand analysis, the selection of major factors influencing the development of passenger transport for individual Polish passengers using an online questionnaire, and scenario designs. The main purpose of this article is to build various scenarios for the development of passenger transport, considering changes in the demand for these services and factors related to their perception by the users of the means of transport. The main factors influencing the future development of passenger transport and the possible scenarios can support public transport service providers in planning their services in the post-shutdown phase as well as in their respective modelling development requirements. This can support the planning process with decision-making based on future behavioural trends.