Simulation-Based Approach for Lookahead Scheduling of Onshore Wind Projects Subject to Weather Risk

Abstract

Executed outdoors in high-wind areas, adverse weather conditions represent a significant risk to onshore wind farm construction activities. While methods for considering historical weather data during pre-construction scheduling are available, approaches capable of quantitatively assessing how short-term weather fluctuations may impact upcoming construction activities have yet to be developed. This study is proposing a hybrid simulation-based approach that uses short-term precipitation, wind speed, and temperature forecasts together with planned and as-built activity durations to develop lookahead (e.g., upcoming 14-day) schedules for improved project planning and control. Functionality and applicability of the method was demonstrated on a case study of a 40 MW onshore wind project, and the method was validated using event validity, face validation, and sensitivity analysis. As expected, favorable weather conditions experienced during the tested lookahead periods resulted in a negligible impact (less than 10% reduction) on the productivity of weather-sensitive activities, which translated into a project delay of one day. The responsiveness of the framework was confirmed through sensitivity analysis, which demonstrated a 50% reduction in productivity resulting from poor weather conditions. The ability of the method to provide decision-support not currently offered by commercially-available scheduling systems was confirmed by subject experts, who endorsed the ability of the method to enhance lookahead scheduling and to facilitate the monitoring and control of weather impact uncertainty on project durations.