Evolution and Forecasting of the Renewable Energy Consumption in the Frame of Sustainable Development: EU vs. Romania

Abstract

This article is part of the concerns generated by the need to increase the consumption of renewable energy, so that in the European Union (EU) countries, its share in the final energy consumption, to reach 32% by 2030, increases. In the context in which, in the specialized literature, the analysis of renewable energy consumption by activity sectors is approached very little, such an analysis has high utility. The variables of interest are the share of renewable energy in the final energy consumption, and the share of renewable energy sources in the final energy consumption in transport, electricity, and heating and cooling. The study performs a comparative analysis of the evolution of these indicators for the period 2004–2019 for Romania and the EU, an empirical estimate of the evolution of indicators using time regression and autoregressive models, a forecast of the share of renewable energy consumption in the final energy consumption and by the main sectors (transport, electricity, and heating and cooling) for the 2030 horizon, providing appropriate scenarios for achieving the EU established goals, as well as an analysis of the interdependence between the indicators. Through the results obtained, the paper can contribute to improving the framework for the sustainable development of energy consumption.