Mitigation of the Collision Risk of a Virtual Impactor Based on the 2011 AG5 Asteroid Using a Kinetic Impactor

Abstract

In recent years, the escalating risk of natural disasters caused by Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) has garnered heightened scrutiny, particularly in the aftermath of the 2013 Chelyabinsk event. This has prompted increased interest from governmental and supranational entities, leading to the formulation of various measures and strategies aimed at mitigating the potential threat posed by NEOs. This paper delves into the analysis of the 2011 AG5 asteroid within the context of small celestial bodies (e.g., asteroids, comets, or meteoroids) exhibiting resonant orbits with Earth’s heliocentric revolution. Initial observations in 2011 raised alarms regarding the asteroid’s orbital parameters, indicating a significant risk of Earth impact during its resonant encounter in 2040. Subsequent observations, however, mitigated these concerns. Here, we manipulate the orbital elements of the 2011 AG5 asteroid to simulate its behavior as a virtual impactor (a virtual asteroid whose orbit could impact Earth). This modification facilitates the assessment of impact mitigation resulting from a deflection maneuver utilizing a kinetic impactor. The deflection maneuver, characterized as an impulsive change in the asteroid’s momentum, is executed during a resonant encounter occurring approximately two decades before the potential impact date. The paper systematically evaluates the dependence of the deflection maneuver’s efficacy on critical parameters, including the position along the orbit, epoch, and momentum enhancement factor.