Volatility Forecasting Based on Cyclical Two-Component Model: Evidence from Chinese Futures Markets and Sector Stocks

Author:

Wen ConghuaORCID,Wei Junwei

Abstract

This article aims to study the schemes of forecasting the volatilities of Chinese futures markets and sector stocks. An improved method based on the cyclical two-component model (CTCM) introduced by Harris et al. in 2011 is provided. The performance of CTCM is compared with the benchmark model: Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility type (HAR-RV type). The impact of open interest for futures market is included in HAR-RV type model. We employ 3 different evaluation rules to determine the most efficient models when the results of different evaluation rules are inconsistent. The empirical results show that CTCM is more accurate than HAR-RV type in both estimation and forecasting. The results also show that the realized range-based tripower volatility (RTV) is the most efficient estimator for both Chinese futures markets and sector stocks.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Computational Mathematics,General Engineering

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3