Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Cultivated Land Use in China’s Main Agricultural Producing Areas

Abstract

In-depth analysis of the decoupling state between cultivated land carbon emissions and cultivated land use factors can provide a basis for coordinating the relationship between food security and ecological environment. On the base of systematically calculating the carbon source of cultivated land, this paper calculated the carbon emission of cultivated land in China’s main agricultural production areas from 2000 to 2020, and explored its temporal and spatial pattern and evolution process. Then, using the LMDI decomposition method and the improved kaya identity, the factors affecting the carbon emissions of cultivated land are divided into five effects: structure, economy, technology, society and population, and then the Tapio decoupling theory is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and these five effects. At the same time, to explore the further relationship between carbon emissions and cultivated land structure, we also studied the decoupling state between carbon emissions and the cultivated land area of 6 main crops. The results showed: during the study period, carbon emissions experienced three stages: fluctuating growth, accelerated growth and slow decline. In the most recent stage, structural, economic and population effects still have some impact on the carbon emissions of cultivated land, changes in cultivated land area where cotton, sugar and tobacco are planted will still affect its carbon emissions. To intervene, policy measures such as promoting the use of clean energy, increasing agricultural imports, and increasing carbon taxes for some industries can be considered.