Consistency of the Empirical Distributions of Navigation Positioning System Errors with Theoretical Distributions—Comparative Analysis of the DGPS and EGNOS Systems in the Years 2006 and 2014

Abstract

Positioning systems are used to determine position coordinates in navigation (air, land and marine). The accuracy of an object’s position is described by the position error and a statistical analysis can determine its measures, which usually include: Root Mean Square (RMS), twice the Distance Root Mean Square (2DRMS), Circular Error Probable (CEP) and Spherical Probable Error (SEP). It is commonly assumed in navigation that position errors are random and that their distribution are consistent with the normal distribution. This assumption is based on the popularity of the Gauss distribution in science, the simplicity of calculating RMS values for 68% and 95% probabilities, as well as the intuitive perception of randomness in the statistics which this distribution reflects. It should be noted, however, that the necessary conditions for a random variable to be normally distributed include the independence of measurements and identical conditions of their realisation, which is not the case in the iterative method of determining successive positions, the filtration of coordinates or the dependence of the position error on meteorological conditions. In the preface to this publication, examples are provided which indicate that position errors in some navigation systems may not be consistent with the normal distribution. The subsequent section describes basic statistical tests for assessing the fit between the empirical and theoretical distributions (Anderson-Darling, chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov). Next, statistical tests of the position error distributions of very long Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) and European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) campaigns from different years (2006 and 2014) were performed with the number of measurements per session being 900’000 fixes. In addition, the paper discusses selected statistical distributions that fit the empirical measurement results better than the normal distribution. Research has shown that normal distribution is not the optimal statistical distribution to describe position errors of navigation systems. The distributions that describe navigation positioning system errors more accurately include: beta, gamma, logistic and lognormal distributions.