Comprehensive Analysis of Ocean Current and Sea Surface Temperature Trend under Global Warming Hiatus of Kuroshio Extent Delineated Using a Combination of Spatial Domain Filters

Abstract

The effect of climate prevails on a diverse time scale from days to seasons and decades. Between 1993 and 2013, global warming appeared to have paused even though there was an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. The variations in oceanographic variables, like current speed and sea surface temperature (SST), under the influence of the global warming hiatus (1993–2013), have drawn the attention of the global research community. However, the magnitude of ocean current and SST characteristics oscillates and varies with their geographic locations. Consequently, investigating the spatio-temporal changing aspects of oceanographic parameters in the backdrop of climate change is essential, specifically in coastal regions along Kuroshio current (KC), where fisheries are predominant. This study analyzes the trend of ocean current and SST induced mainly during the global warming hiatus, before and till the recent time based on the daily ocean current data from 1993 to 2020 and SST between 1982 and 2020. The Kuroshio extent is delineated from its surrounding water masses using an aggregation of raster classification, stretching, equalization, and spatial filters such as edge detection, convolution, and Laplacian. Finally, on the extracted Kuroshio extent, analyses such as time series decomposition (additive) and statistical trend computation methods (Yue and Wang trend test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator) were applied to dissect and investigate the situations. An interesting downward trend is observed in the KC between the East coast of Taiwan and Tokara Strait (Tau = −0.05, S = −2430, Sen’s slope = −5.19 × 10−5, and Z = −2.61), whereas an upward trend from Tokara Strait to Nagoya (Tau = 0.89, S = 4344, Sen’s slope = 8.4 × 10−5, and Z = 2.56). In contrast, a consistent increasing SST in trend is visualized in the southern and mid-KC sections but with varying magnitude.