Geospatial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technique for Urban Mapping in Coastal Regions of South Aegean Volcanic Arc Islands

Abstract

Coastal environments are globally recognized for their spectacular morphological characteristics as well as economic opportunities, such as fisheries and tourism industries. However, climate change, growth in tourism, and constant coastal urban sprawl in some places result in ever-increasing risk in the islands of the South Aegean Volcanic Arc (SAVA), necessitating thoughtful planning and decision making. GEOspatial INTelligence (GEOINT) can play a crucial role in the depiction and analysis of the natural and human surroundings, offering valuable information regarding the identification of vulnerable areas and the forecasting of urbanization rates. This work focuses on the delineation of the coastal zone boundaries, semi-automatization of Satellite-Derived Bathymetry (SDB), and urban mapping using a machine learning algorithm. The developed methodology has been implemented on the islands of Thira (Santorini island complex) and Milos. This study attempts to identify inaccuracies in existing open-source datasets, such as the European Settlement Map (ESM), as a result of the unique combination of the architectural style and bare-soil characteristics of the study areas. During the period 2016–2021, the average accuracy of the developed methodology for urban mapping in terms of the kappa index was 80.15% on Thira and 88.35% on Milos. The results showed that the average urbanization expansion on specified settlements was greater than 22% for both case studies. Ultimately, the findings of this study could contribute to the effective and holistic management of similar coastal regions in the context of climate change adaptation, mitigation strategies, and multi-hazard assessment.