Exploring Primary Aluminum Consumption: New Perspectives from Hybrid CEEMDAN-S-Curve Model

Abstract

Aluminum is globally the most used nonferrous metal. Clarifying the consumption of primary aluminum is vital to economic development and emission reduction. Based on the signal decomposition tool and S-curve model, a new hybrid complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN)-S-curve model is proposed to analyze primary aluminum consumption of different countries for the last 100 years. The results show that: (1) Per capita primary aluminum consumption can be decomposed into low-frequency, medium-frequency, and high-frequency components, contributing over 70%, 2–17%, and less than 9% to variability of consumption series, respectively. This can be interpreted as economic development represented by GDP per capita, shocks from significant events, and short-term fluctuations, respectively. (2) The CEEMDAN-S-curve shows good applicability and generalizability by using this model in different countries. (3) A new strategy is provided to analyze and predict the consumption pattern of primary aluminum. Furthermore, some important topics related to primary aluminum consumption are discussed, such as CO2 emission and recovery. Based on the results, to meet economic development and achieve sustainable development goals, some measures should be implemented, such as making policies, encouraging resource recovery, and developing new technologies.