Trend Analysis of Rainfall Using Gridded Data over a Region of Southern Italy

Abstract

Climate change is affecting all regions worldwide. Globally, polar ice shields are melting and the sea is rising. Moreover, some regions are facing more common extreme weather events and rainfall, while others are experiencing more extreme heat waves and droughts, causing changes in mean renewable water supplies e.g., precipitation and runoff. In this work, in order to detect possible rainfall trends in the Calabria region (southern Italy), a gridded database has been obtained from a rainfall data set of 129 monthly series collected for the period 1951–2016. In particular, the Inverse Distance Weighed was applied to build 603 rainfall grid series with a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km and, for each grid point, the monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall series were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test and the Theil–Sen estimator. Results showed a decreasing trend for the annual and winter–autumn rainfall and an increasing trend for the summer one.