Prediction of Autogenous Shrinkage of Concrete Incorporating Super Absorbent Polymer and Waste Materials through Individual and Ensemble Machine Learning Approaches

Abstract

The use of superabsorbent polymers, sometimes known as SAP, is a tremendously efficacious method for reducing the amount of autogenous shrinkage (AS) that occurs in high-performance concrete. This study utilizes support vector regression (SVR) as a standalone machine-learning algorithm (MLA) which is then ensemble with boosting and bagging approaches to reduce the bias and overfitting issues. In addition, these ensemble methods are optimized with twenty sub-models with varying the nth estimators to achieve a robust R2. Moreover, modified bagging as random forest regression (RFR) is also employed to predict the AS of concrete containing supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) and SAP. The data for modeling of AS includes water to cement ratio (W/C), water to binder ratio (W/B), cement, silica fume, fly ash, slag, the filer, metakaolin, super absorbent polymer, superplasticizer, super absorbent polymer size, curing time, and super absorbent polymer water intake. Statistical and k-fold validation is used to verify the validation of the data using MAE and RMSE. Furthermore, SHAPLEY analysis is performed on the variables to show the influential parameters. The SVM with AdaBoost and modified bagging (RF) illustrates strong models by delivering R2 of approximately 0.95 and 0.98, respectively, as compared to individual SVR models. An enhancement of 67% and 63% in the RF model, while in the case of SVR with AdaBoost, it was 47% and 36%, in RMSE and MAE of both models, respectively, when compared with the standalone SVR model. Thus, the impact of a strong learner can upsurge the efficiency of the model.