The Progress and Prospects in the Scenario Simulation Research on the Sustainability of Regional Ecosystem Services Based on a “Safe Operating Space”

Abstract

Integrating scenarios and models to assess the sustainability of future regional ecosystem services is at the forefront of ecosystem service science. However, there are a lack of comprehensive reviews on this topic. Therefore, this study provides a systematic review of the research progress considering two aspects: ecosystem service scenario simulation and sustainability assessments based on the concept of a “safe operating space.” We found that (1) a number of studies have already started to explore methods for evaluating the sustainability of future ecosystem services; (2) in terms of scenario construction methods, most existing studies have adopted the global classical scenario downscaling approach, while less consideration has been given to the important socio-economic-environmental characteristics of a region itself, which affect the credibility and policy relevance of scenarios; and (3) in terms of sustainability simulation evaluation, most existing studies are qualitative comparisons of the sustainability of ecosystem services within different scenarios, while quantitative methods are lacking. We proposed an approach that combined participatory scenario construction and a regional safe operating space to address the above identified challenges. Successfully implementing this research approach would provide decision makers with more accurate and practical early warning information regarding the sustainability of future ecosystem services.