Promoting “NEVs Pilot Policy” as an Effective Way for Reducing Urban Transport Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from China

Abstract

To reduce urban transport carbon emissions, the Chinese government issued the NEVs Pilot Policy in 2009 to promote NEVs in both the public and private transport sectors. Using panel data from 53 prefecture-level cities in China spanning from 2006 to 2020, this study evaluates the effectiveness of the NEVs Pilot Policy on urban transport carbon emissions based on the difference-in-differences (DID) model. Additionally, it analyzes the influencing mechanism of this policy, as well as the varying policy effect among heterogeneous cities. The empirical results show that the NEVs Pilot Policy has effectively reduced urban transport emissions by an annual average of 29.3%. Annual per capita emissions were lowered by an average of 0.31 t, and the annual emission intensity was also reduced by an average of 2.04 t per unit GDP. We also found that its dynamic effectiveness has lagged but cumulatively increased over time. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis indicates that the policy effect is mainly achieved by adjusting the vehicle structure (VS) and lowering the energy intensity (EI). The heterogeneity analysis also reveals that the effectiveness of NEVs Pilot Policy varies significantly among different cities. The economic level, the political status, and the urban transport development are found to be the key factors that determine its effectiveness. Based on these findings, this study proposes some targeted policy suggestions to promote NEVs in different cities.