Determinants of Rural Households’ Intensity of Flood Adaptation in the Fogera Rice Plain, Ethiopia: Evidence from Generalised Poisson Regression

Abstract

Effective adaptation to flooding risk depends on careful identification and combinations of strategies which, in turn, depends on knowledge of the determinants of flood adaptation. The main objective of this study was to examine the determinants of rural households’ intensity of flood adaptation in the Fogera rice plain, Ethiopia. A three-stage stratified sampling technique was employed to select 337 sample household heads. Primary data was collected through a structured household survey. Data analysis was accompanied by a descriptive and generalised Poisson regression (GP) model. The descriptive analysis showed that households adopted an average of three (3) flood adaptation strategies. The generalised Poisson regression further revealed that family size, availability of off-farm income, previous flood experience, access to credit, access to extension services, and an early warning information system statistically significantly increase flood adaptation strategies’ average number (intensity). However, the age of the household head negatively and significantly influences the intensity of flood adaptation. More specifically, households with off-farm income, previous flood experience, access to credit, access to extension, and an early warning information system were 20%, 94%, 13%, 30%, and 29% more likely to adopt more flood adaptation strategies, respectively. The findings call for immediate response and coordination among stakeholders to design strategies that enhance households’ livelihood, access to credit, access to extension services, and early warning information systems for effective flood adaptation in the study area.