Risk Assessment and Zonation of Roof Water Inrush Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Principle Component Analysis, and Improved Game Theory (AHP–PCA–IGT) Method

Abstract

With the large-scale mining of deeply buried coal seams, the risk of roof water inrush increases during mining. In order to ensure safe mining, it is necessary to predict the risk potential of water inrush from the roof aquifer. This study introduces a coupling evaluation method, including the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), principal component analysis (PCA), and improved Game theory (IGT). This paper takes the water inrush from the roof aquifer of the 11-2 coal seam in Kouzidong mine as the research object. An evaluation index system is constructed by selecting six evaluation factors, including the aquitard effective thickness, aquiclude thickness, the ratio of sandstone to mudstone, rock quality designation, fault fractal dimension, and wash water quantity of geological log. The comprehensive weighting method based on IGT is used to optimize the subjective and objective weighting values obtained by AHP and PCA methods in turn, and an AHP–PCA–IGT evaluation model is established to divide and evaluate the water inrush risk zonation of the roof aquifer. The risk degree of the water inrush gradually decreases from the center to the north–south, and the main areas with relatively high risks and higher risks are distributed in a small part of the western and eastern regions. Finally, combining various drilling data examples, drilling pumping tests, and water inrush sites, the accuracy of the predicted results is validated through the vulnerability fitting percentage (VFP). The predictions are basically consistent with the actual results, and this study lays a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of water inrush hazards.