A Combined Clustering and Trends Analysis Approach for Characterizing Reference Evapotranspiration in Veneto

Abstract

Climate change is having an increasing effect on the water cycle, hindering the proper management of water resources for different purposes. Veneto, Northern Italy, is a region characterized by various climatic conditions, ranging from the coastal area to the inland, which exhibits significant agricultural productivity with high irrigation demand, up to the mountainous area to the north. This study assesses a key aspect of climate change in Veneto by focusing on a crucial hydrological parameter, the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), which is calculated using the Penman–Monteith equation. The K-means algorithm was employed to divide Veneto into nine homogeneous regions, each characterized by specific evapotranspiration and climatic features. Furthermore, the seasonal Mann–Kendall (MK) test and the innovative trends analysis (ITA) method were used to investigate the trends related to monthly precipitation, ETo, and climate variables. The seasonal MK test revealed negative trends in precipitation for all clusters. In contrast, ETo trends appear to be decreasing for some clusters, both on the coast and inland, and increasing for others. The ITA method indicated more pronounced trends for higher values of ETo and precipitation, highlighting significant variations that primarily impact extreme values. Overall, this study’s approach, which incorporates clustering and trends analysis methods, provides a detailed depiction of ETo in Veneto, enabling the identification of distinct homogeneous areas and the assessment of evolutionary trends concerning evapotranspiration and precipitation, from the coastal to the mountainous regions.