Accounting for the Logic and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Comprehensive Value of Cultivated Land around Big Cities: Empirical Evidence Based on 35 Counties in the Hefei Metropolitan Area

Abstract

Exploring the value of cultivated land resources around big cities is an important prerequisite for when realizing the “trinity” of cultivated land protection in terms of quantity, quality, and ecology. At present, the value of cultivated land resources faces the problem of having a low comparative efficiency of economic output, inadequate visualisation of asset value, and serious undervaluation. The manifestation of social, ecological, and cultural values in cultivated land plays an important role in accurately calculating the value of cultivated land. Therefore, this study attempted to clarify the composition and account for the logic of the comprehensive value of cultivated land around big cities. Taking the Hefei metropolitan area as an example, we used mathematical modeling and geostatistical analysis to measure the integrated value of cultivated land around big cities from 2010 to 2020 and analyse the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors. The results revealed a 2:7:1 ratio of economic, social, ecological, and cultural values for cultivated land in the metropolitan area. The comprehensive value of cultivated land was higher in 2020 than in 2010, was approximately 7.7 times the current compensation standard, and was significantly affected by the natural geography, economic development, cultivated land conditions, and protection policies. Furthermore, the comprehensive value showed spatial differentiation characteristics of ‘high in the east and south and low in the west and north’, and a spatial agglomeration effect was evident in some areas. A significant increase was observed in the social value of cultivated land, followed by an increase in the ecological and cultural values, whereas a slow downward trend was observed for the economic value. The economic value of cultivated land around big cities showed a downward trend, whereas the social, ecological, and cultural values showed upward trends. In the future, differentiated policy tools should be adopted based on the spatial heterogeneity of the comprehensive value of cultivated land in the Hefei metropolitan area to enhance their comprehensive value. In addition, scientific and reasonable compensation standards should be established, and high-quality agricultural development with the high-level protection of cultivated land should be promoted in metropolitan areas.