Regularizing Lifetime Drift Prediction in Semiconductor Electrical Parameters with Quantile Random Forest Regression

Abstract

Semiconductors play a crucial role in a wide range of applications and are integral to essential infrastructures. Manufacturers of these semiconductors must meet specific quality and lifetime targets. To estimate the lifetime of semiconductors, accelerated stress tests are conducted. This paper introduces a novel approach to modeling drift in discrete electrical parameters within stress test devices. It incorporates a machine learning (ML) approach for arbitrary panel data sets of electrical parameters from accelerated stress tests. The proposed model involves an expert-in-the-loop MLOps decision process, allowing experts to choose between an interpretable model and a robust ML algorithm for regularization and fine-tuning. The model addresses the issue of outliers influencing statistical models by employing regularization techniques. This ensures that the model’s accuracy is not compromised by outliers. The model uses interpretable statistically calculated limits for lifetime drift and uncertainty as input data. It then predicts these limits for new lifetime stress test data of electrical parameters from the same technology. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated using anonymized real data from Infineon technologies. The model’s output can help prioritize parameters by the level of significance for indication of degradation over time, providing valuable insights for the analysis and improvement of electrical devices. The combination of explainable statistical algorithms and ML approaches enables the regularization of quality control limit calculations and the detection of lifetime drift in stress test parameters. This information can be used to enhance production quality by identifying significant parameters that indicate degradation and detecting deviations in production processes.