Comparison between Physical and Empirical Methods for Simulating Surface Brightness Temperature Time Series

Abstract

Land surface temperature (LST) is a vital parameter in the surface energy budget and water cycle. One of the most important foundations for LST studies is a theory to understand how to model LST with various influencing factors, such as canopy structure, solar radiation, and atmospheric conditions. Both physical-based and empirical methods have been widely applied. However, few studies have compared these two categories of methods. In this paper, a physical-based method, soil canopy observation of photochemistry and energy fluxes (SCOPE), and two empirical methods, random forest (RF) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were selected as representatives for comparison. Based on a series of measurements from meteorological stations in the Heihe River Basin, these methods were evaluated in different dimensions, i.e., the difference within the same surface type, between different years, and between different climate types. The comparison results indicate a relatively stable performance of SCOPE with a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 2.0 K regardless of surface types and years but requires many inputs and a high computational cost. The empirical methods performed relatively well in dealing with cases either within the same surface type or changes in temporal scales individually, with an RMSE of approximately 1.50 K, yet became less compatible in regard to different climate types. Although the overall accuracy is not as stable as that of the physical method, it has the advantages of fast calculation speed and little consideration of the internal structure of the model.