Vegetation Dynamics and Their Influencing Factors in China from 1998 to 2019

Abstract

Vegetation is a critical component of ecosystems that is influenced by climate change and human activities. It is therefore of great importance to investigate trends in vegetation dynamics and explore how these are influenced by climate and human activities. This will help formulate effective ecological restoration policies and ensure sustainable development. As the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is strongly correlated with vegetation dynamics and may be used as a proxy measure for vegetation condition, the spatiotemporal characteristics of NDVI derived from SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI data in China over the 1998–2019 period were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and the Hurst exponent. The Pearson correlation analysis and residual analysis methods were employed to analyze the influencing factors of NDVI dynamics. Integrating the results of the Hurst exponent and the NDVI trend analysis, it was found that the majority area of China is presenting an increasing NDVI trend at present but is likely to reverse in the future. A significant positive correlation between the NDVI and temperature was observed on the southeast coast of China and the north Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Precipitation was the dominant factor affecting vegetation dynamics as indicated by a positive correlation with the NDVI for most parts of China except for the inland area in the Northwest and the Hengduan Mountains in Southwest China. Extreme temperature and extreme precipitation have also shown varying degrees of influence on vegetation dynamics at various locations. In addition, this study revealed trends of increasing NDVI, suggesting improved vegetation condition attributable to the implementation of ecological engineering projects. This study is helpful for studying the interaction mechanisms between terrestrial ecosystems and climate and for sustaining the ecological environment.