Sensitivity Analysis of Runoff and Wind with Respect to Yellow River Estuary Salinity Plume Based on FVCOM

Abstract

In 2020, Yellow River runoff was more than twice as much as past years, and the proportion of strong winds was also higher than that in past years, which will inevitably lead to a change in salinity plume distribution in the Yellow River Estuary and Laizhou Bay. Based on FVCOM numerical modelling, this paper presents the spatial salinity distribution and dispersion of the Yellow River Estuary and Laizhou Bay during the wet and dry seasons in 2020. We used data from six tidal and current stations and two salinity stations to verify the model, and the results showed that the model can simulate the local hydrodynamic and salinity distribution well. The influence of river discharge and wind speed on salinity diffusion was then investigated. The simulation results showed that under the action of residual currents, fresh water from the Yellow River spread to Laizhou Bay, and the low salinity area of Laizhou Bay was mainly distributed in the northwest. The envelope area of 27 psu isohaline can account for about one-quarter of Laizhou Bay in the wet season, while the low-salinity area was only concentrated near the estuary of Yellow River in the dry season. River discharge mainly affects the diffusion area and depth of fresh water, and wind can change the diffusion structure and direction. In the wet season, with the increase in wind speed, the surface area of the plume decreased gradually, and the direction of the fresh water plume changed counterclockwise from south to north. During the dry season, the plume spread to the northwest along the nearshore. The increase in wind speed in the early stage increased the surface plume area, and the plume area decreased above a wind speed of 10 m/s due to the change in the turbulence structure. The model developed and the results from this study provide valuable information for establishing robust water resource regulations for the Yellow River. This is particularly important to ensure that the areas with low salinity in the Yellow River Estuary will not decrease and affect the reproduction of fish species.