Evaluating the Increasing Trend of Strength and Severe Wind Hazard of Philippine Typhoons Using the Holland-B Parameter and Regional Cyclonic Wind Field Modeling

Abstract

For the Philippines, a country exposed to multiple natural hazards, such as severe winds, sustainable development includes resiliency. A severe wind hazard is raised by tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific, known as typhoons, which frequent the Philippines. Therefore, adequately evaluating wind hazards and their impact is crucial for sustainable building design. Acknowledging the effects of climate change on said hazards requires adaptation to their consequences, which necessitates a deeper understanding of the changing behavior of typhoons in recent years. For this study, detailed wind information from the Japanese Meteorological Agency from 1977 to 2021, the Holland-B parameter, and the radius of maximum wind speed for each typhoon, are determined for simulation of the regional cyclonic wind field. The analysis of the Holland-B parameters, which represent the steepness of the pressure gradient and tropical cyclone convection, suggests that the Holland-B parameters have been increasing since 2011. The evaluation of the maximum regional wind fields and the return period wind fields caused by typhoons also indicate an increasing trend in severe wind hazards. Seasonality for the location of severe wind hazards is also observed, with Visayas and Mindanao experiencing an increase (decrease) during the Northeast (Southwest) Monsoon season and Luzon experiencing an increase (decrease) during the Southwest (Northeast) Monsoon season.