Mineral Requirements for China’s Energy Transition to 2060—Focus on Electricity and Transportation

Abstract

Through energy transition, China can help curb the global climate challenge and achieve carbon neutrality. However, the development of energy transition is potentially constrained by minerals. Previous studies on energy minerals have been limited to power generation technologies (e.g., wind and solar) and have mostly focused on rare metals. In this study, 18 minerals were selected for investigation based on the energy transition scenario in China. A dynamic stock model was used to calculate the installed capacity and phase-out of infrastructure. Through scenario analysis, changes in the demand for minerals from China’s energy transition and the risks of these minerals were assessed. Uncertainties in mineral intensity and lifetime assumptions were also addressed through statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that wind power and photovoltaics will dominate the power generation sector in the future. Further, some minerals (Co, Cr, Cu, In, Li, Ni, Te) will face risk (especially Co and In), which may limit the development of electric vehicles and photovoltaics. Extending lifetime and reducing material intensity can reduce material demands but cannot fully mitigate material supply risks. Therefore, resource security strategies should be developed in advance to secure the supply of mineral resources in the energy transition process.