Exploration of China–ASEAN Trade Relations in the Context of Sustainable Economic Development—Based on the Lotka–Volterra Model

Abstract

The concept of sustainable development as a consensus is being recognized and practiced by the international community, and how to promote China–ASEAN trade relations and stable and sustainable economic development is an important guarantee for the coordinated economic development of the region. This paper studies the trade relationship between China and the ten ASEAN countries by using the theory of ecological population evolution and determines the ecological trade relationship between China and the ten ASEAN countries by establishing the Lotka–Volterra model of the evolution of two populations—the relationship of competition, the relationship of partial benefit, and the relationship of mutually beneficial symbiosis—so as to analyze the degree of trade friction between the two sides and propose corresponding strategies for coordinated development of the regional economy. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, there is a competitive relationship between China, Brunei, and Vietnam, which may cause trade friction. China has a trade-biased relationship with Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which is less likely to cause trade friction. China’s trade with Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand is mutually beneficial. The possibility of trade friction is low, and the trade relationship between China and ASEAN as a whole is also mutually beneficial. On this basis, in order to further enhance the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and promote the coordinated development of the regional economy, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions of improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation areas, and actively investing in foreign direct investment.