Integration of GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process to Assess Flood Hazard on the Al-Shamal Train Pathway in Al-Qurayyat Region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of floods in dry environments and predicting an accurate flood hazard map considering multiple standards and conflicting objectives is of great political and planning importance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s vision for the year 2030, in order to reduce losses in lives, property, and infrastructure. The objectives of this study are (1) to develop a flood vulnerability map identifying flood-prone areas along the Al-Shamal train railway pathway; (2) to forecast the vulnerability of urban areas, agricultural land, and infrastructure to possible future floods hazard; and (3) to introduce strategic solutions and recommendations to mitigate and protect such areas from the negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve these objectives, multicriteria decision analysis based on geographic information systems (GIS-MCDA) is used to build a flood hazard map of the study area. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to extract the weights of eight criteria which affect the areas which are prone to flooding hazards, including flow accumulation, distance from the wadi network, slope, rainfall density, drainage density, and rainfall speed. Furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC Curve) method is used to validate the presented flood hazard model. The results of the study reveal that there are five degrees of flooding hazard along the Al-Shamal train path, ranging from very high to very low. The high and very high hazard zones comprise 19.2 km along the path, which constitutes about 26.45% of the total path length, and are concentrated at the intersections of the Al-Shamal train pathway with the Bayer and Al-Makhrouk wadis. Moderate, low, and very low flood severity areas constitute nearly 53.39 km, representing 73.55% of the total length (72.59 km) of the track. These areas are concentrated at the intersection of the Al-Shamal train track with the Haseidah Al-Gharbiyeh and Hsaidah Umm Al-Nakhleh wadis. Urban and agricultural areas that are vulnerable to high and very high flooding hazards are shown to have areas of 29.23 km2 (22.12%) and 59.87 km2 (46.39%), respectively.